Potential Sources of Conflict (1995)
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Potential sources of conflict in Central and Eastern Europe as at time of research in 1995.

forms of dispute

aims of groups fomenting dispute types of entity involved in disputes

In 'Military security in the post-Communist age ', Ivan Volgyes lists four categories of threats, both real and perceived, which will continue to have an effect on Central and East European countries' foreign and military policy:

The document "SSRC Occasional Brief: No 15 - Potential sources of conflict in Post-Communist Europe" in conjunction with my own research and knowledge of the region forms the basis of the following list, which is not intended to be comprehensive. I have ommitted some items included in the SSRC list, dating from 1992, as they no longer appear relevant.

Many of these conflicts are largely confined to academic circles but can remain obstacles to integration and cooperation in a regional and European context.

Czech Republic

1. Czech-Germany. Sudetenland. There are approimately ??million Sudeten Germans - expelled in 1945 -  and their descentants now living in Germany, largely Bavaria, who are vociferously opposed to Czech policy regarding restitution. Their leader Neubauer has repeatedly spoken out against Czech EU membership.
2. Czech-Slovakia. The 'Velvet Divorce'. Continued friction, albeit dissipating rapidly, over the division of assets - including military - in the aftermath of the peaceful 1993 dissolution of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic.
3. Czech-Poland. Tìšin / Dìèin. Polish minority in Moravia / Silesia.

Central European neighbours

4. Silesia, Pomerania. Poland-Germany. Substantial stay-behind German minorities, particularly in central Silesia, are becoming more assertive of language and cultural rights, but remain 'civil'. National and local authorities 'understanding'.
5. East Prussia (Kaliningrad). Poland-Russia. Continued concerns of Polish authorities about the continued high level of Russian troops in the Russian Federation exclave of Kaliningrad. Worries about the size of the Baltic fleet stationed there.
6. Vilnius. Poland-Lithuania. Historical claim to the Vilnius area, Polish as recently as ?1920. Polish concern about alleged discrimination against a Polish majority enclave in the region.
7. Bialystok. Poland-Belarus. An historic claim to a region which is largely inhabited by ethnic Belarussians. Not in the political arena.
8. Poland-Ukraine. Poland's eastern border has been fluid throughout the country's history. Resultingly, there are substantial minorities on both sides of the state frontier, though widely dispersed in the case of Ukraine.
9. Southern Slovakia. Slovakia-Hungary. Large, concentrated Magyar minority along Slovakia's southern border, known also as 'Upper Hungary'. Hungarian concern over language rights and local government. Other concerns including Gabèikovo dam on Danube.
10. Transcarpathian Ruthenia. Hungary-Slovkia-Ukraine. A region with competing historical claims and ethnic diversity.
11. Transylvania. Hungary-Romania. Long-standing dispute over sizeable Hungarian minority deep inside modern-day Romania. ?Discriminatory language and culture laws.
12. Vojvodina. Hungary-Serbia. Ethnically mixed formerly autonomous republic within Serbia. Treatment of the large Hungarian minority of concern to Hungary.
13. Gagauz. Bulgaria-Turkey. Geographically compact Christian Turkish-speaking minority in Bulgaria about whose treatment Turkey is concerned.
14. Souther Dobruja. Bulgaria-Romania. Bulgaria has a claim to this area of Romania.
15. Trieste. Slovenia-Italy. Italian claim over Trieste's hinterland and Gorizia, plus sought restitution for expelled Italian landowners, has led to Italy delaying Slovenia's integration into Western insitutions.
16. Koper Bay. Slovenia-Croatia. Croatian claim over approx. 1/3 of Slovenia's tiny coastline, due to Yugoslav internal borders.

[boundary and ethnic conflict within former Yugoslavia are omitted due to their complex, inter-related nature]

Former Soviet Union and the Balkans

17. Vilnius. Belarus-Lithuania. Belarus territorial claim and ethnic minority in Vinius area.
18. Kaliningrad. Russia-Lithuania. Dispute over transit rights of Russian citizens and military between the exclave and heartland. Continued concern over the presence of large military concentration.
19. Latvia-Russia. Dispute with Russia over treatment of the large Russian population concerning military pensioners and citizenship laws. Presence of Russian military microwave station at Skrunda.
20. Taartu. Estonia-Russia. Ongoing dispute over border settlement. Large Russian population, concentrated towards the Russian border.
21. Moldova. Romania-Moldova. Romanian nationalists are pressing with some political support for 'reunification' of former Bessarabia with the motherland.
22. Trans-Dnestria. Moldova-Russia. Predominantly ethnic Russian, self-declared republic to the east of the Dneistr river seeks union with Russia which protects it (14th Army group presence).
23. Crimea. Ukraine-Russia. Ethnic Russian republic seeking local powers and possible 'reunification' with Russia. Territorial dispute over Crimea peninsula and Black Sea Fleet assets and bases.
24. Donbass. Ukraine-Russia. Substantial and vocal Russia minority being vocal in calls for closer links with Russia.
25. West Ukraine. Local population seeks to sever all ties with Russia and is causing internal east-west tensions.
26. Belarus. (Belarus-Russia) President Lukashenka adopting an increasingly populist, absolutist style and has made comments applauding Hitler's role in 1930s Germany. Attempting to re-unify country with Russia in a 'mini-USSR', against popular opinion.


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